May 07, 2015
by: Jarrad Harvey
April 29, 2015, Bali Nine ringleaders Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran were executed by firing squad in Indonesia
following a decade of legal challenges, intense Australian government
and diplomatic pressure, and impassioned public opinion on both sides of
the Timor Sea. As Australia continues to mourn this loss of life, and
as Indonesia continues to justify its decision, attention now turns to
the future of bilateral relations.
In the wake of the executions, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott
has made it clear that bilateral relations will not simply continue in a
“business as usual” fashion, while Foreign Minister Julie Bishop took a similar position, stating that the executions would “have consequences.”
Speculation on the possible repercussions has followed, with some
commentators specifically turning to the question of a potential reduction in Australian foreign aid to Indonesia as part of the upcoming May budget.
At a highly publicized press conference in the wake of the
executions, Abbott and Bishop announced that Australia’s Ambassador to
Indonesia Paul Grigson would be recalled.
Other countries had already taken the same step in the wake of earlier
executions in Indonesia, but this was a first for Australia. Still,
while the seriousness of the recall should not be understated, there is
little indication that it will be the harbinger of a more permanent
freeze in relations. Indeed, shortly after the announcement, Indonesian
Attorney-General Muhammad Prasetyo reportedly dismissed the withdrawal
as a “temporary reaction.”
Close Neighbor
Indonesia is one of Australia’s closest neighbors, the two countries
sharing robust political, security, economic, aid, and people-to-people
ties. While resuming standard, cordial relations with Indonesia so soon
after Chan and Sukumaran’s executions would certainly invoke the ire of
many Australians, a long-term rupture in relations would hardly be in
Australia’s interests.
Politically, Indonesia is important to Australia for the role the
former plays in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). A
stable relationship with Indonesia is needed for a cooperative and
productive working relationship with ASEAN.
Indonesia is also the most populous country in the region and boasts
one of the largest military forces in Southeast Asia. It is little
wonder that Indonesia already dominates and wishes to increase its
influence over ASEAN, given the country’s interests in having a stable,
rules-based regional forum (headquartered in Jakarta, no less) in which
it can project significant influence.
Indonesian aspirations for enlarging its role as regional steward
have been reflected in recent comments by the head of the country’s
armed forces, General TNI Dr. Moeldoko, who foreshadowed Indonesian
aspirations of playing a “big brother” role in ASEAN and in the region, especially in the realm of security.
Increasingly, Australia has realized the importance of ASEAN in
guaranteeing regional stability and thus Australia’s domestic security.
This has predominately been via ASEAN-led security institutions; namely,
the East Asia Summit (EAS) and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).
In recent years, Australia has worked vigorously to guarantee its
security, foreign aid, and development interests by fostering a close
relationship with the EAS. This is most evident in Australia’s role in
steering the EAS’s policy agenda towards topics like the Korean
Peninsula, maritime security, and developmental issues relating to
education, health disaster management, and water resources. The EAS has
not only helped guarantee regional security, it has facilitated
cooperation among its members. For example, Australia and Indonesia
jointly hosted the successful rapid disaster response workshops for EAS
members in September 2013 and June 2014.
Canberra has also enjoyed a productive working relationship with the
ARF to guard against, and adequately respond to, unexpected ruptures in
regional security. Australia has made real contributions to the ARF
security agenda, as exemplified in its co-chairing with the Philippines
of the Second ASEAN Regional Forum Seminar on the United Nations
Convention on the Law of the Sea in May 2014. This and other efforts
have proved helpful in containing regional threats directly affecting
Australia, such as the flow of illegal arms, drug-trafficking, and
people-smuggling.
Given the depth of the political and security relationship between
Australia and ASEAN, a move that would see Canberra dismantling its
Indonesian relations in the long-term, and simultaneously ties with
ASEAN, would have a debilitating effect on Australia’s wider political
and security interests in the region.
While relations with Indonesia connect Australia to ASEAN, on a
bilateral political level, cordial dealings with Jakarta are crucial if
the Australian government is to achieve its domestic security
objectives.
People-Smuggling
Of all the issues where Australia-Indonesia cooperation is essential,
there is perhaps no greater policy challenge than people-smuggling.
Australian diplomatic officials have long appealed to Jakarta for its
support in stemming the flow of illegal maritime asylum seekers from
Indonesia – a common transit point on the sea route to Australia. And
historically cooperation between the two countries on this issue has
been considerable. Further, Australia and Indonesia are both co-chairs
of the important Bali Process – an international forum seeking to foster
greater cooperation between states to prevent people-smuggling,
human-trafficking, and transnational crime. Australia has also been able
to use its position within the Bali Process to promote greater
capacity-buildingto in the criminalization, detection, arrest, and
enforcement of people-smuggling crimes in member countries, like
Indonesia.
Jakarta recognizes the importance of this bargaining-chip; that is,
Canberra’s interest in containing people-smuggling. This has been clear
in comments made by Indonesian officials pointing to the potential loss
of goodwill on people-smuggling cooperation should Australia continue to
ruffle too many feathers in Indonesia. Coordinating Minister for
Political, Legal and Security Affairs Tedjo Edhy Purdijatno was recently
quoted as saying his country would create a “human tsunami” of illegal maritime asylum seekers to Australia if Canberra continued to “displease” its northern neighbor.
Economics
Australia is also unlikely to forsake its Indonesian relations for
economic reasons. Indonesia is Australia’s twelfth largest trading
partner, with two-way trade in 2013 amounting to almost A$15 billion
($11.9 billion). In recent years, considerable effort has been expended
by both Canberra and Jakarta to bolster the trade relationship. This has
manifested itself in numerous high-level ministerial visits to promote
business and investment in both countries.
Economic and trade advisers in Canberra would also hesitate to
recommend trade bans, which would trigger significant financial losses
redolent of those experienced by Australian graziers during the 2011 ban
on live cattle exports to Indonesia following allegations of animal
cruelty in Indonesian abattoirs. While Indonesia simply sourced meat
products from other markets, it is estimated that the month-long ban
resulted in losses in excess of A$600 million for the Australian cattle industry.
Although two-way trade has now returned to a healthier level, the
conclusion of a comprehensive free trade agreement would further
stimulate trade by providing a swathe of the usual FTA benefits to both
countries. Negotiations on the Indonesia–Australia Comprehensive
Economic Partnership Agreement commenced in September 2012, though have
since stalled following the conclusion of the second round of
negotiations nearly two years ago. Without a doubt, the last thing
Canberra needs is for Jakarta to use this latest incident as a reason to
delay its wider free trade objectives.
Foreign aid and people-to-people considerations may also prevent a
more permanent Australian departure from its Indonesian relations.
Currently, Indonesia is one of the largest recipients of Australian
development assistance. More than just raising living standards,
Australia’s recently reformed aid delivery program is focused
on improving health, education, food security, and governance to create
stability and prosperity, and thus reduce the incidence of human and
natural risks that could potentially threaten Australia.
Further, with almost one million Australian tourists flocking to Bali
annually, as well as the high numbers of Indonesian students and
expatriates in Australia, a move that would sour relations with
Indonesia and unfairly victimize everyday Indonesians seems unlikely for the Abbott government.
Attitudes
What can be said, however, is that while Canberra may be reluctant to
close its doors to Indonesia in the long term, widespread outrage in
the Australian community in response to the pair’s executions casts a
grimmer picture for the enduring attitudes of the Australian people
towards Indonesia.
Perhaps with the exception of the Bali Bombings in 2005, never has Australia been so united in such collective compassion and grief as it has been in the weeks and days preceding the executions of Chan and Sukumaran.
But just as the pair’s execution sparked
widespread outrage in Australia, the majority of Indonesians remained
steadfast in their support for the death penalty and the need to uphold
Indonesian sovereignty. In early March, one of Indonesia’s largest
newspapers, Kompas, published an opinion poll
revealing that 86 percent of Indonesian respondents agreed that Chan
and Sukumaran should be executed irrespective of Canberra’s petitions,
while 57.8 percent supported the severing of diplomatic relations with
countries that did not respect Indonesia’s sovereignty, including
Australia.
To many Australians the protracted saga has shown that, despite the
rhetoric of the Asian Century, which blithely extols overtures of
prosperity and harmony, cleavages will always exist, just beneath the
surface, between the people and values of Asia and Australia. Indeed,
while the beloved values of justice and “a fair go” dictated to many
Australians that the pair be reprieved, just as many Indonesians,
including the government, justified the execution on the reasonable
communitarian basis
that drugs represent one of the greatest threats to Indonesia’s social
fabric. This latter position is widely shared within the region; indeed,
Singapore’s late founder Lee Kuan Yew often spoke
about the virtue of communitarian Asian values, while criticizing
Western countries for the proliferation of social ills like drug
addiction.
So whilst Canberra and Jakarta are undoubtedly
“facing their most serious rift since the East Timor crisis,” necessary
work on politics, security, economics, and foreign aid will demand an
eventual resuscitation of relations. The real work will be repairing the
idea of Indonesia in the minds of everyday Australians. That is a task
that could take some time.
Jarrad Harvey is currently a postgraduate in the Department of
Government & International Relations at the University of Sydney.
The views expressed here are his own.
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